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In biology or human geography, population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population. Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009,[1] further straining its resources. Niger, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.

Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually,[2] or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.616 billion[3] in 2018. It is expected to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.[4]

History


World population has been rising continuously since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350.[6] Population began growing rapidly in the Western world during the industrial revolution. The most significant increase in the world's population has been since the 1950s, mainly due to medical advancements and increases in agricultural productivity.

Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to grow food, the Haber process served as the "detonator of the population explosion", enabling the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2018.[7]

Some of the reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population"[8] were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912-1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:

Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas.[13] His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder of social medicine".[14]

Population growth rate


The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.[15]

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.

Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources.[16]

The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equation[17]

where

  • = the population after time t;
  • = time a population grows;
  • = the relative growth rate coefficient;
  • = the carrying capacity of the population; defined by ecologists as the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain.[16]

As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:

Human population growth rate


In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[18] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.[19] The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity[20] made possible by the Green Revolution.

The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million.[18] Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in poverty-stricken countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.[21]

In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.[22] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.[23]

The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century, but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below the replacement rate in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050, followed by a long decline.[24] A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century.[25]

For further information regarding Human Population Growth, see the works of Dr(s) Al Bartlett, Hans Rosling, John Lovelock, Paul Ehrlich as well as Cleric Thomas Robert Malthus.

Growth by country


According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.[26] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).[26]

Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009,[1] further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.

The following table gives some example countries:

Growth by region


Population growth rates vary by world region, with the highest growth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest in Europe. For example, from 1950 to 2010, Sub-Saharan Africa grew over three and a half times, from about 186 million to 856 million. On the other hand, Europe only increased by 35%, from 547 million in 1950 to 738 million in 2010. As a result of these varying population growths, Sub-Saharan Africa changed from 7.4% of world population in 1950 to 12.4% in 2010, while Europe declined from 22% to 11% in the same time period. [85]

Into the future


According to the UN's 2017 revision to its population projections, world population is projected to reach 11.2 billion by 2100 compared to 7.6 billion in 2017.[86][87] In 2011, Indian economist Sanjeev Sanyal disputed the UN's figures and argued that birth rates will fall below replacement rates in the 2020s. According to his projections, population growth will be only sustained till the 2040s by rising longevity, but will peak below 9 bn by 2050.[24] Conversely, a 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division projected that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.[88] One of its authors, Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, says "The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around 7 billion, would go up to 9 billion and level off or probably decline. We found there’s a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world’s agenda, remains a very important issue."[89]

See also


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